192. 2/11/1961

“[FEB 11, 1961] The CIA’s Board of National Estimates sends the Director [of CIA Allen Dulles] a memorandum outlining international reactions to various U.S. actions against the Castro regime. The Board argues that the Soviet Bloc ‘would regard Castro’s downfall as a substantial, political defeat and would respond vigorously to any major U.S. move.’ While that response would be primarily political, in the event of a prolonged military struggle, the Bloc would seek to continue or increase military aid to the Castro regime. However, the Board ‘believe[s] that the Bloc would avoid a direct military confrontation with U.S. forces.’ The Board reports that most governments in Latin America would ‘at least privately approve of unobtrusive U.S. support for an opposition move against Castro…’ However, reaction would ultimately depend on whether the U.S. is perceived to be ‘assisting the Cubans themselves to settle their own destinies,’ or is ‘imposing a new regime.’ As for ‘reactions elsewhere in the Free World,’ the Board believes ‘it would remind many people of the Soviet intervention in Hungary.’”

“The Bay of Pigs Invasion/Playa Giron: A Chronology of Events,” The National Security Archive, NSArchive2.gwu.edu

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