227. 3/16/1961

“MAR 16, 1961: Drawing on intelligence gathered in Cuba at the end of February, the CIA generates an information report that claims ‘diminishing popular support of the Castro government.’ Estimates are that ‘fewer than 20 percent of the people’ support [Fidel] Castro, and that ‘many Cubans think that it is possible that Castro will soon fall.’ It concludes that ‘approximately 75 to 80 percent of the militia units will defect when it becomes evident that the real fight against Castro has begun.’ [CIA Deputy Director of Plans, Richard] Bissell uses this and several similar intelligence reports to bolster his case that the invasion will spark a major uprising.”

“The Bay of Pigs Invasion/Playa Giron: A Chronology of Events,” The National Security Archive, NSArchive2.gwu.edu

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