“[January 27, 1961] Sherman Kent, chairman of the CIA’s Board of National Estimates, sends Allen Dulles [Director of CIA] a secret memorandum entitled ‘Is Time on Our Side in Cuba?,’ concluding that [Fidel] Castro’s position in Cuba is likely to grow stronger rather than weaker as time goes on. The board, which does not know of the invasion plans, argues against the view that the Cuban population is eager to stage an uprising against Castro: While Castro will probably continue to lose popular support, this loss is likely to be more than counter-balanced by the regime’s effective controls over daily life in Cuba and by the increasing effectiveness of its security forces for maintaining control.”

“The Bay of Pigs Invasion/Playa Giron: A Chronology of Events,” The National Security Archive, NSArchive2.gwu.edu